The San Antonio Spurs beat the Oklahoma City Thunder four times in five regular season meetings. Those wins were not in any way accidental. They did not stumble into a favorable matchup. They did not get lucky. They won by margins of 20, 15, 10 and 2, and in so doing, exposed the Thunder’s weakness. The San Antonio Spurs are no longer coming. They are here.
And after stealing Game 1 in double overtime 122-115 on the road, the rest of the NBA should be deeply concerned.
Because this was supposed to be Oklahoma City’s moment. The Thunder had homecourt advantage. They had the newly-crowned league MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. They had momentum after steamrolling through the first 2 rounds of the playoffs with identical 4-0 wipeout slates. They now have a healthy roster, including the fully recovered Jalen Williams. And still, none of that mattered.
San Antonio walked into one of the loudest arenas in basketball and still controlled the game anyway. Even scarier? They did it without veteran leader D’ Aaron Fox. They did it with a way-too-young starting five composed of Victor Wembanyama (21 yrs old), Stephon Castle (20), Devin Vassell (25), Julian Champagnie (24) and Dylan Harper (19). If that does not terrify the league, I don’t know what will.
The Spurs’ Game 1 victory did not feel like a fluke, despite the double overtime. It felt inevitable – like the continuation of a pattern that has existed all season. San Antonio’s beatdown of the defending NBA champs Oklahoma City 4-1 during the regular season showed us that they possess exactly the kind of roster that can disrupt everything the Thunder are most noted for. Now, these young but uncowed Spurs are proving that they can play with the big boys. Big time.
The formula starts with athleticism and defensive discipline. The Thunder have basically a double-barrelled offense. They play a fast transition game; and failing that, rely on Shai Gilgeous Alexander’s off-pace offense. Most teams fail against Shai because eventually they break down mentally. Shai is too wily, too smooth, too creative. He strikes with the stealth and patience of a wildcat. Defenders lose focus for a split second and suddenly he is in the lane drawing fouls or hitting impossible floaters.
But San Antonio does not defend him with uncontrolled pressure. They defend him with waves of length, speed, and physicality. Stephon Castle is young, athletic, and has been fearless, bodying Shai on drives and forcing him into uncomfortable possessions. Devin Vassell uses his size and instincts to crowd passing lanes and contest shots without fouling. And there’s the irreverent Dylan Harper, whose speed provides another stylistic hurdle for the newly-crowned MVP. The Spurs do not stop Shai completely – nobody can – but they make him work harder than any team in basketball. And the Spurs just need to wear him out slowly, consistently, eventually.
And in the playoffs, that matters immensely. Every possession in the playoffs is more physical. Every drive becomes more exhausting. Over a seven-game series, constant pressure wears everyone down, even superstars. This is what the Spurs are learning on the fly. The physicality. And they’re finding out that this is exactly the kind of basketball San Antonio can thrive in.
Because they have the biggest thorn ever for the Thunder: Victor Wembanyama. Oklahoma City still has no real answer for him. Chet Holmgren competes credibly and remains one of the league’s most unique young stars. Alex Caruso tried speed to pester him. But Wemby operates in a far higher plane – figuratively and literally. Wemby changes the geometry of the floor in ways that feel unfair. He operates in the cage world’s entire atmosphere while the rest of us still fly in our own limited lowly stratosphere. He rebounds over everyone; like picking apples before they fall to the ground for the kids. He obliterates driving lanes with his huge size and uncanny speed. He erases mistakes defensively with his high basketball IQ. And offensively, he forces difficult decisions for opponents because he can dominate inside while also stretching the floor.
What makes this even more frightening for the rest of the NBA is that they do not depend entirely on Wembanyama. This is an incredibly young team with lots of upside. Wembanyama, Castle, Harper and most of the Spurs’ core are youngsters who are years ahead of their physical and basketball prime. Most championship teams slowly age out of contention after a few seasons. This group feels like it has barely started. Yet, drilled and inculcated with the Spurs’ basketball philosophy and culture, they already know how to defend like veterans; they move the ball like seasoned cage warriors, and they carry themselves with remarkable composure under pressure. If they are this dangerous now, the possibility of a long-term Spurs dynasty suddenly feels very real, and very scary
And most importantly, they believe. You could see it in Game 1. Even when Oklahoma City made runs that would normally unnerve other teams, San Antonio never looked intimidated. They played like the better team because, against the Thunder, they genuinely believe that they are the better team. Who wouldn’t? After winning 4 games to 1 in the regular season, their confidence have gone sky-high.
That is the part the NBA has to accept now. This is not some magical Cinderella underdog story anymore. The Spurs are not simply ‘ahead of schedule.’ They are a championship-level team built for the modern postseason, with long, switchable, athletic, interchangeable player-parts, and anchored by a generational superstar who can dominate games at both ends of the floor.
And they have proof. They took Game 1 on the road against the defending champs. Even without D’Aaron Fox. They already dominated Oklahoma City 4-1 during the regular season. They have matchup advantages across the floor. They have the best defensive weapon in basketball. Physically and mentally, they are absolutely convinced that they can beat this team.
At this point, it is no longer bold to say it: Spurs in six.
Because for all the brilliance of the defending champs OKC Thunder, for all the magic of Shai and the Thunder’s chaotic speed and swarming defense, the San Antonio Spurs may simply be the one team in basketball built specifically to stop them. And now, with a trip to the NBA Finals on the line, the Spurs now hold both the psychological edge and the matchup advantage over this equally talented Thunder team that many believed were a cinch to win a second consecutive title this year.
This Western Conference Finals does not feel like a conference finals at all. It feels like the real NBA championship. Whoever survives this series will likely lift the Larry O’Brien Trophy in June. And right now, San Antonio looks like the team ready not only to take over the league – but possibly to own it for the next decade.
Cover pic courtesy of the New York Times.
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